Tokyo Ponders an End to Nuclear Power

By MARI IWATA And TAKASHI MOCHIZUKI

TOKYO—The Japanese government is likely to decide to eliminate all nuclear power over the next two decades in a new long-term energy plan that comes amid strong public opposition to atomic energy and ahead of national elections expected in the next few months, said government officials familiar with policy discussions.

Following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear-plant accident in March 2011, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda set up a council to recommend a long-term energy strategy based on three scenarios: phasing out nuclear power completely by 2030, reducing dependence to 15%, or keeping it at current levels of about 20% to 25%. All the scenarios aim to increase the use of renewable energy to at least 20% from the current 10%.

The government is expected to announce a final decision in September, ahead of general elections for parliament expected by the end of the year.

While it had been widely expected to choose the middle option, government officials said Tuesday that the council is now most likely to select the zero-nuclear option. "Zero nuclear is our hope and goal," one of the officials told Dow Jones Newswires. "We are moving toward it, and I don't think others will be aggressively against it."

Following the Fukushima disaster, all of Japan's remaining 50 working reactors were eventually idled for regular maintenance. In July, two reactors in western Japan were brought back on line in response to an anticipated increase in energy demand for the summer. The move angered anti-nuclear activists, who have held weekly demonstrations outside the prime minister's residence, drawing crowds of up to 75,000 people.

Industry Minister Yukio Edano, who is responsible for the power industry, said earlier this month he wants to eliminate the use of nuclear power if there is agreement to share the financial burden that would arise from the increased use of more expensive fossil fuels. Mr. Edano's comments followed Prime Minister Noda's instructions to look into the practical challenges of the nuclear-zero scenario.

The policy is seen as a way for Mr. Noda and the ruling Democratic Party of Japan to soothe public opinion, which has been especially hostile since the enactment earlier this month of legislation to double the sales tax to 10% over the next three years.

The cabinet's approval rating has sagged well below the 30% level in recent media polls. At the same time, the public has been increasingly concerned about a return to nuclear energy. In a recent poll by the daily Asahi Shimbun, 43% of 1,540 respondents said they favored a zero-nuclear policy, while 31% chose the 15% option. Only 11% chose the 20% to 25% scenario.

In another sign of the softening of the government's stance, Mr. Noda appeared set to meet with nuclear protesters on Wednesday. Until this week, Mr. Noda had refused to meet with their representatives.

Industry groups remain opposed to abandoning nuclear power, saying that would encourage manufacturers already suffering from higher domestic costs to shift production overseas.

Masami Hasegawa, a senior manager at the environmental policy office of Keidanren, Japan's largest business lobby, said the government is overlooking the views of the "silent majority."

He also said Japan's situation is different from that of Germany, which decided in May 2011 to close all its nuclear power plants. "Germany could decide to eliminate nuclear power because its power grid is connected to other European countries and it can import electricity from France when necessary," Mr. Hasegawa said. "For energy security, it is wiser that Japan maintains diversity in its energy sources."

A spokesman for Kansai Electric Power Co., Japan's second-largest power utility after Tokyo Electric Power Co., and the one previously most dependent on nuclear power, declined to comment.

Kansai Electric President Makoto Yagi said in late July he believes nuclear power is necessary for Japan and will remain so in the future.